Errors in Moral Forecasting: Perceptions of Affect Shape the Gap Between Moral Behaviors and Moral Forecasts

Area of Science:

• Moral Psychology
• Affective Science
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• A discrepancy exists between moral judgments and actual behavior.
• Physiological arousal is a potential factor in this moral forecasting gap.
• The role of perceived affect in moral decision-making remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate if people fail to anticipate their feelings in morally significant situations.
• To determine the role of perceived affect in the dissociation between moral forecasts and behavior.

Main Methods:

• Three studies examined moral decision-making, specifically cheating behavior.
• Methods included forecasting predictions, behavioral measures, and manipulation of arousal perception (somatic feedback, misattribution).
• Study 3 assessed dispositional emotional awareness.

Main Results:

• Forecasters predicted significantly more cheating than actual behavior observed.
• Manipulating arousal perception (false somatic feedback, misattribution) increased forecasted cheating, aligning predictions with behavior.
• Higher emotional awareness correlated with lower forecasted cheating.

Conclusions:

• Perceptions of affect are a key determinant in the dissociation between moral forecasts and behavior.
• Anticipating emotional responses is crucial for accurate moral decision-making predictions.
• Understanding affective forecasting can help bridge the gap between moral intentions and actions.