Host density drives macroparasite abundance across populations of a critically endangered megaherbivore

What determines the abundance of parasites is a central question within epidemiology. Epidemiological models predict that density-dependent transmission has a principal influence on parasite abundance. However, this mechanism is seldom tested in macroparasites, perhaps because multiple, comparable populations of the same host-parasite relationship are rare. We test the influence of a range of factors on parasite abundance across 18 populations of black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) in South Africa. Here we show that host density strongly predicts parasite abundance at the population level for both directly and indirectly transmitted parasites. All other models were not supported. The surprising influence of a single key factor, host density, within a complex ecological system demonstrates the validity of simple epidemiological models. Establishing this previously assumed relationship between host density and parasite abundance has major implications for disease control and parasite ecology. For instance, it is central to the idea of population density thresholds for parasitism, below which a parasite would become extinct. Density-dependent transmission is also essential for calculations of the basic reproductive number, and the hypothesis that parasites may regulate host population size.