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Invention as a combinatorial process: evidence from US patents.

Hyejin Youn1, Deborah Strumsky2, Luis M A Bettencourt3

  • 1Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford OX2 6ED, UK Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK CABDyN Complexity Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA youn@maths.ox.ac.uk.

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|April 24, 2015
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Summary

Invention combines existing technologies at a steady rate, but creating new foundational technologies has slowed. This dynamic allows for a vast, nearly infinite, space of new technological configurations.

Keywords:
complex systemtechnological changetechnological evolution

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Area of Science:

  • * Economics of Innovation
  • * Technological Change
  • * Patent Analysis

Background:

  • * Invention is often viewed as combining existing elements.
  • * Previous research highlights the recombinant nature of invention across disciplines.
  • * A formal, quantitative characterization of the inventive combinatorial process is lacking.

Purpose of the Study:

  • * To formally characterize invention as a combinatorial process.
  • * To quantitatively analyze the dynamics of technological combination and creation.
  • * To investigate the long-term trends in inventive activity using patent data.

Main Methods:

  • * Utilized US patent records from 1790 to 2010.
  • * Treated patented inventions as carriers of technologies.
  • * Employed the US Patent and Trademark Office's technology code system to classify technologies.

Main Results:

  • * The combinatorial inventive process shows invariant rates of 'exploitation' (refining existing combinations) and 'exploration' (developing new combinations).
  • * The creation of new technological capabilities, the building blocks for combinations, has significantly slowed.
  • * Novel technological combinations generate a practically infinite space of configurations despite reduced introduction of new technologies.

Conclusions:

  • * Invention proceeds through a stable dynamic of combining existing technologies.
  • * The pace of creating foundational technologies is a bottleneck for future innovation.
  • * The combinatorial nature of invention ensures a vast potential for future technological development.