The value of HCG serum concentrations after trigger in predicting pregnancy and live birth rates in IVF-ICSI

The aim of this study was to determine if an association existed between serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) level at 12 h after trigger and IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm (ICSI) treatment outcomes. Women undergoing initial IVF-ICSI and embryo transfer treatment using the long luteal phase gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist protocol between April 2012 and March 2013 for tubal factor were included (n = 699). In the clinical pregnancy group, HCG after trigger was significantly elevated (276.0 ± 5.1 versus 198.5 ± 6.1 mIU/mL; P < 0.001). The optimal cut-off value proposed by the receiver operating characteristic analysis (area under curve = 0.730) for HCG was 201.2 mIU/ml. Compared with the lower HCG group, the clinical pregnancy rate in the higher HCG group was increased in obese and non-obese patients (77.8% versus 57.3%, P < 0.05; 85.6% versus 53.0%, P < 0.01, respectively). Adjusted for age and body mass index, an increase of HCG was associated with a better IVF-ICSI treatment outcome (OR 4.39, 95% CI 2.99 to 6.45). Clinical pregnancy rate was significantly higher across increasing quartiles of HCG. An elevated level of serum HCG at 12 h after trigger was associated with a better IVF-ICSI outcome.