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Risk taking in adversarial situations: Civilization differences in chess experts.

Philippe Chassy1, Fernand Gobet2

  • 1Department of Psychology, Liverpool Hope University, United Kingdom.

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|April 28, 2015
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Civilizational differences in risk-taking strategies were analyzed using 667,599 chess games. Some cultures prefer peace, while others adopt bolder, riskier strategies when conflict arises.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral economics
  • International relations
  • Game theory

Background:

  • Anticipated emergence of a multipolar world order within two decades.
  • Potential for increased geopolitical friction and conflict between civilizations and states.
  • Expert decision-making significantly influences risk assessment and conflict initiation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify and compare risk-taking propensities across different civilizations.
  • To identify variations in strategic decision-making under conditions of potential conflict.
  • To explore underlying psychological factors contributing to civilizational differences in risk behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 667,599 chess games played by experts from 11 distinct civilizations over an eleven-year period.
  • Utilized chess game data as a proxy for real-world strategic decision-making and risk assessment.
  • Statistical comparison of strategic choices, focusing on peace settlement tendencies and risk-taking levels during conflict.

Main Results:

  • Significant variation in inclination towards peaceful settlements across civilizations.
  • Demonstrated substantial differences in risk-taking levels once conflict engagement occurs.
  • Identified the boldest civilization employing riskier strategies approximately 35% more frequently than the most conservative civilization.

Conclusions:

  • Civilizational background demonstrably influences strategic choices in conflict scenarios.
  • Psychological factors likely play a crucial role in shaping these observed differences in risk-taking.
  • Findings offer insights into potential conflict dynamics in a future multipolar world order.