Factors which predict violence victimization in Uganda

Violence is a major public health issue, globally and on the African continent. This paper looks at Uganda and begins the process of identifying the factors that predict violence in that country. The purpose is to interpret the implications of the study results for violence prevention programs.

The study includes the responses of 2 399 Ugandans collected in 2011 by the Fifth Round of the Afrobarometer surveys. The study concentrates on 259 respondents who reported either they or someone else in their family had been the victim of violence, defined as being physically attacked, in the last year.

Logistical regression analysis identified six factors that predict physical violence in Uganda. In order, these included being the victim of a property crime, age, gender, fear of crime in the home, poverty, and residential crowding. The surprising findings relate to what may be called target hardening, especially for those likely to be re-victimized. Respondents did tend to be re-victimized, with about 61 percent of violence victims also property crime victims. Fear of crime in home was another predictor of violence victimization, and many of these respondents had been crime victims.

These findings imply that target hardening should be the basis to begin to implement violence prevention programs in Uganda. The suggestion is crime prevention personnel/ law enforcement need to respond to reported incidents of property and/or violence victimization and attempt to prepare victims to protect both their premises and their persons in the future.