Development of a risk index for prediction of abnormal pap test results in Serbia

Serbia is one of the countries with highest incidence and mortality rates for cervical cancer in Central and South Eastern Europe. Introducing a risk index could provide a powerful means for targeting groups at high likelihood of having an abnormal cervical smear and increase efficiency of screening. The aim of the present study was to create and assess validity ofa index for prediction of an abnormal Pap test result.

The study population was drawn from patients attending Departments for Women's Health in two primary health care centers in Serbia. Out of 525 respondents 350 were randomly selected and data obtained from them were used as the index creation dataset. Data obtained from the remaining 175 were used as an index validation data set.

Age at first intercourse under 18, more than 4 sexual partners, history of STD and multiparity were attributed statistical weights 16, 15, 14 and 13, respectively. The distribution of index scores in index-creation data set showed that most respondents had a score 0 (54.9%). In the index-creation dataset mean index score was 10.3 (SD-13.8), and in the validation dataset the mean was 9.1 (SD=13.2).

The advantage of such scoring system is that it is simple, consisting of only four elements, so it could be applied to identify women with high risk for cervical cancer that would be referred for further examination.