Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study

Area of Science:

• Global Health Economics
• Surgical Outcomes Research
• Macroeconomic Impact Analysis

Background:

• The economic consequences of the global surgical burden of disease remain largely unquantified.
• Key conditions include injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal/neonatal disorders.
• This study quantifies the macroeconomic impact from two economic perspectives.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the global macroeconomic impact of surgical disease burden.
• To analyze economic consequences from both market (Value of Lost Output) and welfare (Value of Lost Welfare) perspectives.
• To highlight disparities in economic losses between high-income and low-income countries.

Main Methods:

• Utilized mortality rate data from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study.
• Employed the Value of Lost Output (VLO) approach using the WHO's EPIC model for projected market economy losses (2015-2030).
• Applied the Value of Lost Welfare (VLW) approach, incorporating non-market losses, for present value estimations (2010).

Main Results:

• The VLO approach projected $20.7 trillion (1.25% of potential GDP) in losses from 2015-2030 across 128 countries.
• Annual GDP losses were highest in low- and middle-income countries, potentially reaching 2.5% by 2030.
• The VLW approach estimated total welfare losses at $14.5 trillion (17% of 2010 GDP) across 175 countries, with neoplasms and injuries dominating losses.

Conclusions:

• The macroeconomic impact of surgical disease is substantial and inequitably distributed globally.
• Maternal, digestive, and neonatal disorders represent a larger proportion of losses in low-income countries compared to high-income nations.
• Building surgical capacity is a critical global health priority, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, given cost-effectiveness data.