The 2014 governors' races and health care: a campaign web site analysis

The November 2014 midterm election was the first election since key coverage provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were implemented, including the Medicaid expansion and creation of the health insurance exchanges. The pre-election variability in the states' implementation of these provisions coupled with the large number of states selecting their next governor made the election important at the state level. To better understand the role of health care in the recent gubernatorial elections, we analyzed health policy content presented by 71 candidates for governor on their campaign Web sites. Nearly 80% of all candidates discussed health policy on their Web site, including the subset of the 36 winning governors. The predominant focus of health policy content was on the ACA as a whole or its provisions. Medicaid was discussed more often by candidates in non-expansion states than those from expansion states. Based on the statements of winning governors, we expect serious consideration of the Medicaid expansion to occur in at least 4 states, whereas 2 states may make efforts to reverse course. Relatively few winning governors (33%) mentioned the exchanges. Only 1 expressed interest in switching from the federal exchange to a state exchange, which has particular relevance given the Supreme Court's pending decision on King v. Burwell that could invalidate tax credits on the federal exchange. The prominence of health care in the gubernatorial campaigns strengthens the likelihood that governors will play an influential role in the health system's future, especially as the ACA undergoes further federal debate.