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Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2011-2036.

Ernest Healy1, Patricia M Kiely2, Dharma Arunachalam1

  • 1Centre for Population and Urban Research, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.

Clinical & Experimental Optometry
|May 13, 2015
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Australia is projected to have a surplus of optometrists by 2036, with over 1,200 equivalent full-time optometrists (EFTO) potentially exceeding demand. This excess is predicted even with increased service utilization, highlighting a significant future workforce imbalance.

Keywords:
AustraliaMedicare statisticsoptometristpopulationprojectionworkforce

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Health Workforce Planning
  • Optometry

Background:

  • Optometric workforce size is influenced by graduate numbers, retention, immigration, and practitioner demographics.
  • Modeling projected Australian optometric workforce supply against demand from 2011 to 2036 is crucial for planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the Australian optometric workforce supply and demand from 2011 to 2036.
  • To analyze potential future imbalances between the number of optometrists and the demand for optometric services.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Australian Bureau of Statistics census data (2011) on optometrists' age and gender.
  • Projected workforce data over 25 years, incorporating ageing, attrition, working hours, new graduates, and immigration.
  • Compared projected supply with calculated demand under nine different service utilization scenarios.

Main Results:

  • A surplus of over 1,200 equivalent full-time optometrists (EFTO) is projected for 2036 under the highest demand scenario (13.8 million Medicare services).
  • Significant surpluses are predicted across most Australian states and territories.
  • Queensland, Tasmania, and the Northern Territory are projected to have supply within six EFTO of demand.

Conclusions:

  • Current trends indicate an excess of optometrists by 2036, even with increased service utilization.
  • Higher weekly hours allocated per EFTO for Medicare services exacerbate the projected surplus.
  • Findings suggest a need for strategic workforce planning to manage future optometric supply and demand.