Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2011-2036

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Workforce Planning
• Optometry

Background:

• Optometric workforce size is influenced by graduate numbers, retention, immigration, and practitioner demographics.
• Modeling projected Australian optometric workforce supply against demand from 2011 to 2036 is crucial for planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the Australian optometric workforce supply and demand from 2011 to 2036.
• To analyze potential future imbalances between the number of optometrists and the demand for optometric services.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Australian Bureau of Statistics census data (2011) on optometrists' age and gender.
• Projected workforce data over 25 years, incorporating ageing, attrition, working hours, new graduates, and immigration.
• Compared projected supply with calculated demand under nine different service utilization scenarios.

Main Results:

• A surplus of over 1,200 equivalent full-time optometrists (EFTO) is projected for 2036 under the highest demand scenario (13.8 million Medicare services).
• Significant surpluses are predicted across most Australian states and territories.
• Queensland, Tasmania, and the Northern Territory are projected to have supply within six EFTO of demand.

Conclusions:

• Current trends indicate an excess of optometrists by 2036, even with increased service utilization.
• Higher weekly hours allocated per EFTO for Medicare services exacerbate the projected surplus.
• Findings suggest a need for strategic workforce planning to manage future optometric supply and demand.