Mortality trend and predictors of mortality in dysphagic stroke patients postpercutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) feeding is widely used in stroke patients suffering from persistent dysphagia; however, predicting the risks and benefits of PEG insertion in the individual patient is difficult. The aim of our study was to investigate if candidate risk factors could predict short-term mortality risk in poststroke patients who had PEG tube insertion for persistent dysphagia.

This was a retrospective study of 3504 consecutive stroke patients admitted to two metropolitan hospitals during the period January 2005 to December 2013 and who also underwent PEG insertion for feeding due to persistent dysphagia.

A total of 102 patients were included in the study. There were 22 deaths in 6 months after insertion of PEG tubes and 20 deaths of those occurred within 3 months post PEG. Those who survived beyond 6 months showed significantly lower mean age (75.9 ± 9.0 years vs. 83.0 ± 4.9 years, P < 0.001), a lower mean American Society of Anesthesia (ASA) score (3.04 ± 0.63 vs. 3.64 ± 0.58, P < 0.001) compared to nonsurvivors. In multiple Logistic, age (P = 0.004, odds ratio [OR] = 1.144; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.044-1.255); ASA (P = 0.002, OR = 5.065; 95% CI: 1.815-14.133) and albumin level pre-PEG insertion (P = 0.033, OR = 0.869; 95% CI: 0.764-0.988) were the independent determinants of mortality respectively.

We propose that age, ASA score and albumin level pre-PEG insertion to be included as factors to assist in the selection of patients who are likely to survive more than 3 months post PEG insertion.