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Betting Decision Under Break-Streak Pattern: Evidence from Casino Gaming
Lawrence Hoc Nang Fong1, Amy Siu Ian So2, Rob Law3
1Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Avenida da Universidade, Taipa, Macau SAR, China. lawrencefong@umac.mo.
Gamblers often exhibit cognitive bias, betting on the latest outcome during a break-streak pattern. This tendency is amplified by long alternative streaks, frequent latest outcomes, and female gamblers, impacting gambling harm mitigation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Behavioral Economics
- Gambling Studies
Background:
- Cognitive biases are common in gamblers, particularly those with gambling problems.
- Heuristics theories provide a framework for understanding decision-making biases in gambling contexts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine a specific cognitive bias triggered by break-streak patterns in casino gambling.
- To identify determinants influencing betting decisions under break-streak conditions.
Main Methods:
- A non-participatory observational study was conducted.
- Data collected from 1229 bets placed by Cussec gamblers in a Macao casino.
- Analysis focused on break-streak patterns and betting decisions.
Main Results:
- Gamblers tend to bet on the latest outcome following a break-streak pattern.
- Betting decisions are significantly influenced by the streak length of the alternative outcome and the frequency of the latest outcome.
- Female gamblers demonstrated a stronger tendency to bet on the latest outcome under these conditions.
Conclusions:
- Findings confirm the existence of a cognitive bias related to break-streak patterns in gambling.
- Identified determinants (streak length, outcome frequency, gender) offer insights into gambler behavior.
- Implications for casino management and policymakers to minimize gambling-related harm.
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