Estimation of Tumor Size Evolution Using Particle Filters

Cancer is characterized by the uncontrolled growth of cells with the ability of invading local organs and/or tissues and of spreading to other sites. Several kinds of mathematical models have been proposed in the literature, involving different levels of refinement, for the evolution of tumors and their interactions with chemotherapy drugs. In this article, we present the solution of a state estimation problem for tumor size evolution. A system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used as the state evolution model, which involves as state variables the numbers of tumor, normal and angiogenic cells, as well as the masses of the chemotherapy and anti-angiogenic drugs in the body. Measurements of the numbers of tumor and normal cells are considered available for the inverse analysis. Parameters appearing in the formulation of the state evolution model are treated as Gaussian random variables and their uncertainties are taken into account in the estimation of the state variables, by using an algorithm based on the auxiliary sampling importance resampling particle filter. Test cases are examined in the article dealing with a chemotherapy protocol for pancreatic cancer.