[Statistical prediction of radioactive contamination impacts on agricultural pasture lands]

Based on the literature data analysis, the rationale is given for the use of probabilistic approaches to solve the problems of estimation of a long-lived radionuclide uptake in animal products. Methods for statistical prediction of radioactive contamination consequences for agricultural pasture lands have been devised and implemented in the form of models and program modules. These offer the estimation of radionuclide transfer between the links of an agricultural chain, taking into account variability in the migration parameters, estimation of soil contamination limits based on the preset risk levels for the stuffs produced and statistical coordination of standards. An illustration is given of the application of the above methods using statistical characteristics of 137Cs migration parameters in the soil-plant-animal produce chain. Further trends have been formulated in the development of the risk concept as applied to the assessment of radioecological situations of radioactive contamination of the agricultural land.