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Updated: Apr 12, 2026

Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
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Recent Decrease in Colorectal Cancer Mortality Rate is Affected by Birth Cohort in Korea.

Yonho Jee1, Chang-Mo Oh, Aesun Shin

  • 1Department of Statistics, Sookmyung Women's University, Seoul, Korea

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|May 20, 2015
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Summary

Colorectal cancer mortality is decreasing in Korean women and stable in men since 2004. These trends in colorectal cancer mortality are linked to birth cohort effects.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Cancer Research

Background:

  • Colorectal cancer mortality rates are declining in some Asian nations.
  • Understanding long-term trends is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze long-term colorectal cancer mortality trends in Korea.
  • To utilize joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort modeling for trend assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Data on colorectal cancer deaths and population demographics (1984-2013) were sourced from Statistics Korea.
  • Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis (intrinsic estimator method) were employed.

Main Results:

  • Colorectal cancer mortality increased in men until 2003, then stabilized; it decreased in women from 2004.
  • Age-specific rates rose overall but decreased in younger cohorts.
  • Older age and recent periods correlated with higher mortality; birth cohorts post-1919 showed reduced risk.

Conclusions:

  • A recent decline in colorectal cancer mortality is observed in Korean women, with stabilization in men.
  • Birth cohort effects are likely drivers of these observed mortality trends.