Chemometric approach to open validation protocols: Prediction of validation parameters in multi-residue ultra-high...

The recent technological advancements of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry allow the simultaneous determination of tens, or even hundreds, of target analytes. In such cases, the traditional approach to quantitative method validation presents three major drawbacks: (i) it is extremely laborious, repetitive and rigid; (ii) it does not allow to introduce new target analytes without starting the validation from its very beginning and (iii) it is performed on spiked blank matrices, whose very nature is significantly modified by the addition of a large number of spiking substances, especially at high concentration. In the present study, several predictive chemometric models were developed from closed sets of analytes in order to estimate validation parameters on molecules of the same class, but not included in the original training set. Retention time, matrix effect, recovery, detection and quantification limits were predicted with partial least squares regression method. In particular, iterative stepwise elimination, iterative predictors weighting and genetic algorithms approaches were utilized and compared to achieve effective variables selection. These procedures were applied to data reported in our previously validated ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry multi-residue method for the determination of pharmaceutical and illicit drugs in oral fluid samples in accordance with national and international guidelines. Then, the partial least squares model was successfully tested on naloxone and lormetazepam, in order to introduce these new compounds in the oral fluid validated method, which adopts reverse-phase chromatography. Retention time, matrix effect, recovery, limit of detection and limit of quantification parameters for naloxone and lormetazepam were predicted by the model and then positively compared with their corresponding experimental values. The whole study represents a proof-of-concept of chemometrics potential to reduce the routine workload during multi-residue methods validation and suggests a rational alternative to ever-expanding procedures progressively drifting apart from real sample analysis.