Daily Affective and Behavioral Forecasts in Romantic Relationships: Seeing Tomorrow Through the Lens of Today

The current research examined accuracy and bias in daily forecasts within romantic relationships. Results of an extensive daily report study involving 200 romantic dyads and 4,822 daily observations suggested that predictions regarding affect and partner behavior that will occur tomorrow are somewhat accurate, predicted by actual experiences tomorrow, but are largely biased by current experiences. Participants appeared to project the current state of their relationship into the future, a temporal projection bias. This bias predicted forecasters' pro-relationship motivation and behavior. Forecasters were less likely to exhibit the temporal projection bias when they were high in relationship commitment, and they were more likely to exhibit the bias when they were high in need for cognitive closure, suggesting that motivation can constrain or amplify tendencies to project the present into the future. Implications for interpersonal relationships are discussed.