Upper midwest climate variations: farmer responses to excess water risks.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Climate Science

Background:

• Persistent above-average precipitation and runoff increase sediment, soil, and nutrient loss from farmlands.
• The US Upper Midwest faces a 37% precipitation increase (1958-2012), causing crop damage and resource degradation.
• Farmer adaptive management is crucial for mitigating crop losses and improving soil and water resources.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model how geophysical context, weather, on-farm experiences, and risk perceptions influence farmer management practices.
• To understand farmer adaptation strategies in response to changing climate conditions in the US Upper Midwest.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a farmer survey (n=4778) and climate data (1971-2011).
• Modeled influences of precipitation, soil saturation, land characteristics, and market access on management adoption.
• Analyzed regional and localized climate variations and their association with farmer practices.

Main Results:

• Increased warm-season precipitation correlated positively with no-till, drainage, and planting on highly erodible land (HEL).
• Experience with saturated soils led to increased drainage use but decreased adoption of no-till, cover crops, and HEL planting.
• Farmers in areas with marginal soils and those selling corn through multiple markets were more likely to adopt conservation practices like cover crops and planting on HEL.

Conclusions:

• Farmer adoption of adaptive management practices is influenced by a combination of regional climate, localized experiences, and land characteristics.
• Perceived and actual on-farm climate experiences are more influential than broad regional climate data for adaptation.
• Downscaled, localized climate information can enhance the effectiveness of specific farmer adaptation strategies for soil and water conservation.