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Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice.

John Turner1, J Scott Hosking2, Thomas J Bracegirdle2

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Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
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PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Southern Ocean sea ice extent has increased since the 1970s, driven by regional changes like the Ross Sea. This trend may be part of natural climate variability.

Keywords:
Southern Oceanclimate changecryospheresea ice

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Oceanography
  • Polar Studies

Background:

  • Arctic sea ice has declined, while Southern Ocean sea ice extent (SIE) has increased since the late 1970s.
  • Antarctic SIE shows regional variations, with notable increases in the Ross Sea and decreases in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea.
  • Sea ice variability is primarily linked to atmospheric conditions, specifically near-surface wind fields.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the trends and drivers of Southern Ocean sea ice extent (SIE) changes.
  • To investigate the relationship between SIE, atmospheric conditions, and climate model performance.
  • To determine if observed Antarctic SIE increases are within the range of natural climate variability.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of satellite-derived sea ice extent (SIE) data from 1979-2013.
  • Correlation analysis between SIE, atmospheric variables (wind fields), and climate indices (Amundsen Sea Low depth).
  • Evaluation of climate model simulations (IPCC CMIP5) for their ability to reproduce observed Antarctic SIE trends.

Main Results:

  • Southern Ocean SIE increased at an average rate of 186×10(3) km(2) per decade (1.5% per decade).
  • The overall increase is dominated by a significant rise in SIE within the Ross Sea sector.
  • SIE in the Ross Sea is strongly correlated with the deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL).
  • Better-performing climate models suggest the recent Antarctic SIE increase could be within natural variability bounds.

Conclusions:

  • The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent is a complex phenomenon with significant regional differences.
  • Atmospheric conditions, particularly wind patterns influenced by the Amundsen Sea Low, play a crucial role in driving SIE trends.
  • Current climate models struggle to accurately simulate sea ice, but some suggest recent Antarctic SIE increases are consistent with internal climate variability.