Cancer surveillance using registry data: Results and recommendations for the Lithuanian national prostate cancer...

We describe long term trends in prostate cancer epidemiology in Lithuania, where a national prostate specific antigen (PSA) test based early detection programme has been running since 2006.

We used population-based cancer registry data, supplemented by information on PSA testing, life expectancy and mortality from Lithuania to examine age-specific prostate cancer incidence, mortality and survival trends among men aged 40+ between 1978 and 2009, as well as life expectancy of screening-eligible men, and the proportion of men with a first PSA test per year since the programme started.

The number of prostate cancer patients rose from 2.237 in 1990-1994 to 15.294 in 2005-2009. By 2010, around 70% of the eligible population was tested, on average around two times. The early detection programme brought about the highest prostate cancer incidence peaks ever seen in a country to date. Recent incidence and survival rises in the age groups 75-84 suggest PSA testing in the elderly non-eligible population. Life expectancy of men aged 70-74 indicates that less than 30% of patients will live for 15 years and may have a chance to benefit from early detection.

Early detection among men aged 70-74, and particularly among the elderly (75+) may have to be reconsidered. Life expectancy assessment before testing, avoiding a second test among men with low PSA values and increasing the threshold for further evaluation and the screening interval may help reducing harm. Publishing information on treatment modalities, side-effects and patient reported quality of life is recommended.