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Spatial asymmetries in connectivity influence colonization-extinction dynamics.

Miguel A Acevedo1,2, Robert J Fletcher3, Raymond L Tremblay4,5

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Metapopulation models often assume symmetric connectivity, but this study shows asymmetric movement is common in orchids. Accounting for dispersal asymmetry improves colonization estimates and metapopulation viability assessments.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Metapopulation ecology relies on understanding how movement influences colonization and extinction.
  • Traditional metapopulation models often simplify connectivity using symmetric distances, potentially misrepresenting real-world dynamics.
  • Asymmetric movement patterns can bias estimates of population dynamics and metapopulation viability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of asymmetric movement on metapopulation dynamics using a wind-dispersed orchid.
  • To test if accounting for dispersal asymmetry improves colonization and extinction probability estimates.
  • To refine metapopulation modeling by incorporating asymmetric connectivity.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a 10-year time series data for the orchid *Lepanthes rupestris* across 975 patches.
  • Modified traditional connectivity measures to incorporate asymmetric effective distances between patches.
  • Employed dynamic occupancy modeling to estimate colonization and extinction probabilities.

Main Results:

  • Asymmetric movement was prevalent in the *Lepanthes rupestris* metapopulation.
  • Incorporating dispersal asymmetries led to higher colonization estimates, particularly in larger patches.
  • Models that accounted for asymmetry showed improved accuracy in predicting metapopulation dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • Dispersal asymmetry is a crucial factor in metapopulation dynamics that should not be overlooked.
  • Accounting for asymmetric connectivity can reveal previously underestimated connectivity effects.
  • More reliable conclusions regarding metapopulation viability can be drawn when dispersal asymmetries are considered.