Influenza mortality and excess deaths in the elderly, 1967-82

This study assessed the influence of influenza on mortality from heart and lung diseases in people over 70 years of age. The data used were obtained from the Dutch Bureau of Statistics. With a regression model, the observed monthly mortality from heart and lung diseases (influenza not included) in people over 70 years is explained with a yearly variable, a monthly variable and the overall monthly number of influenza mortality cases, assuming that monthly mortality has a Poisson distribution. The monthly excess mortality from heart and lung diseases (influenza not included) due to influenza among elderly people (greater than 70 years) is estimated. This study suggests that 1400 deaths per million per year were due to influenza in people over 70 years of age in the study period of 16 years. It can be concluded that one influenza death in the population over 70 years 'generates' almost two deaths diagnosed as heart and lung diseases in the elderly.