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Measurements of Waves in a Wind-wave Tank Under Steady and Time-varying Wind Forcing
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Predictability of rogue events.

Simon Birkholz1, Carsten Brée2, Ayhan Demircan3

  • 1Max-Born-Institut, Max-Born-Straße 2A, 12489 Berlin, Germany.

Physical Review Letters
|June 13, 2015
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Researchers analyzed rogue wave data from ocean and optical systems. They found that rogue waves in turbulent systems may be preceded by a phase of order, challenging previous assumptions about their unpredictability.

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Area of Science:

  • Nonlinear dynamics
  • Fluid mechanics
  • Optics

Background:

  • Rogue waves are extreme, unpredictable waves that occur in fluid systems.
  • Understanding their determinism and predictability is crucial for safety and scientific advancement.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the determinism and predictability of rogue wave dynamics across different experimental systems.
  • To investigate the underlying mechanisms driving rogue wave formation in optical and oceanic environments.

Main Methods:

  • Nonlinear time series analysis applied to experimental data.
  • Analysis of original records from the Draupner platform (North Sea).
  • Time series analysis of two optical systems: optical fiber supercontinua and multifilament fluence profiles.

Main Results:

  • All three systems exhibited extreme-value statistics, with wave heights exceeding significant wave height by over a factor of 2.
  • The optical fiber system was driven by quantum noise, while rogue waves in the other systems resulted from turbulence.
  • Rogue events in turbulent systems were often preceded by a short phase of relative order, suggesting some predictability.

Conclusions:

  • Rogue wave generation mechanisms differ between quantum noise-driven and turbulent systems.
  • Predictability of rogue waves in turbulent systems may be possible due to preceding ordered phases.
  • Findings offer new insights into the complex phenomenon of rogue waves.