Ten-Year Mortality after Community-acquired Pneumonia. A Prospective Cohort

Information on the long-term prognosis after community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is limited.

To determine if CAP increases adverse long-term outcomes relative to a control population.

Between 2000 and 2002, 6,078 adults with CAP from six hospitals and seven emergency departments in Edmonton (AB, Canada) were prospectively recruited and matched on age, sex, and site of treatment with five control subjects without pneumonia (n = 29,402). Mortality, hospitalizations, and emergency department admissions through 2012 were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for socioeconomic status and comorbidities.

Average age was 59 years (2,682 [44%] ≥ 65 yr), 3,214 (53%) were men, and 3,425 (56%) were managed as outpatients. Over a median of 9.8 years, 2,858 patients with CAP died compared with 9,399 control subjects (absolute risk difference, 30 per 1,000 patient years [py]; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.57-1.73; P < 0.001). Patients with CAP who were younger than 25 years old had the lowest absolute rate difference for mortality (4 per 1,000 py; aHR, 2.40), and patients older than 80 years old had the highest absolute rate difference (92 per 1,000 py; aHR, 1.42). Absolute rates of all-cause hospitalization, emergency department visits, and CAP-related visits were all significantly higher in patients with CAP compared with control subjects (P < 0.001 for all comparisons).

Our results indicate that an episode of CAP confers a high risk of long-term adverse events compared with the general population who have not experienced CAP, and this is irrespective of age.