Nomograms for Predicting Outcomes after Chemoembolization in Patients with Nonmetastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma

To construct prognostic nomograms capable of estimating individual probabilities of tumor progression and overall survival (OS) at specific time points during serial transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

The study included 1,181 consecutive patients with nonmetastatic HCC undergoing repeated transarterial chemoembolization at a single tertiary referral center. Patients were assigned to 2 cohorts according to the first transarterial chemoembolization date: derivation (2004-2006; n = 854) and validation (2007; n = 327) sets. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were developed based on covariates derived before transarterial chemoembolization and assessed for their association with 5-year OS and 3-year progression-free survival (PFS). The accuracy of the models was internally and externally validated.

The 5-year OS of the derivation set was 25.4%, and 3-year PFS was 20.8%. Nomograms for OS and PFS were built into the derivation set incorporating the following factors: log [tumor volume] calculated as 4/3 × 3.14 × (maximum radius of tumor in cm(3)); tumor number; tumor type (nodular or infiltrative); Child-Pugh class (A or B); (model for end-stage liver disease score/10)(-2); log [α-fetoprotein]; and portal vein invasion. The models had good discrimination and calibration abilities with C-indexes of 0.80 (5-y survival) and 0.77 (3-y progression). The results of external validation confirmed that these models performed well in terms of discrimination and goodness-of-fit (C-indexes 0.77 for 5-y survival and 0.73 for 3-y progression).

Nomograms quantifying the survival and progression outcomes in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization are useful clinical aids in providing personalized care.