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Circulating Biomarkers and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Incidence: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
Aaron R Folsom1, Lu Yao2, Alvaro Alonso2
1From Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health (A.R.F., L.Y., A.A., P.L.L., W.T.), Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine (E.M.), and Department of Medicine, School of Medicine (F.A.L.), University of Minnesota, Minneapolis; Minneapolis VA Health Care System, MN (F.A.L.); and Section of Cardiovascular Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine and Center for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart and Vascular Center, TX (C.M.B.). folso001@umn.edu.
Insights
Six blood biomarkers predict abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) risk. Higher concentrations and more identified markers significantly increase the likelihood of developing AAA, identifying high-risk individuals.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Medicine
- Biomarker Discovery
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) pathogenesis is complex.
- Cross-sectional studies suggest links between circulating biomarkers and AAA.
- Prospective evidence for these associations is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the prospective association between multiple blood biomarkers and incident AAA.
- To identify specific biomarkers and their cumulative effect on AAA risk.
Main Methods:
- Prospective cohort study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study).
- Measured blood biomarkers of inflammation, hemostasis, cardiac function, and vascular stiffness.
- Identified incident AAA using hospital discharge codes during follow-up.
Main Results:
- Six biomarkers (white blood cell count, fibrinogen, D-dimer, troponin T, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were positively associated with AAA incidence.
- Increasing numbers of these biomarkers in the highest quartile were associated with significantly higher AAA risk (HRs 2.2 to 9.9).
- A strong trend (P < 0.0001) was observed after adjusting for other risk factors.
Conclusions:
- Higher concentrations of these six biomarkers are prospectively associated with increased AAA risk.
- A cumulative effect exists: more biomarkers in the highest quartile correlate with greater AAA risk.
- Identifying individuals with multiple positive biomarkers can define a high-risk subgroup for AAA.
Background:
The pathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is complex. Cross-sectional studies have connected circulating biomarkers with AAA, but prospective evidence is limited.
Methods And Results:
In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study cohort, we measured multiple blood biomarkers of inflammation, hemostasis, thrombin generation, cardiac dysfunction, and vascular stiffness and identified incident AAAs during follow-up using hospital discharge codes. Six biomarkers (white blood cell count, fibrinogen, D-dimer, troponin T, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were strongly associated positively with AAA incidence. Compared with having none of these 6 biomarkers in the highest quartile, the hazard ratios of AAA for those with 1, 2, 3, or 4 to 6 biomarkers in the highest quartile were 2.2, 3.3, 4.0, and 9.9, respectively (P for trend < 0.0001) after adjustment for other risk factors.
Conclusions:
This prospective study found that higher concentrations of 6 biomarkers were associated with increased risk of AAA. The more markers that fell into the highest quartile, the higher the AAA risk was. Multiple positive biomarkers identify a subgroup of patients at high risk of AAA.
Related Concept Videos
Coronary Artery Disease I: Introduction
Atherosclerosis I: Introduction
Atherosclerosis II: Clinical Manifestations and Diagnostic Tests
Atherosclerosis III: Management
Aneurysm II: Clinical Manifestations and Diagnostic Studies
Aneurysm III: Interprofessional Care

