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Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
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A Primer on Unrealistic Optimism.

James A Shepperd1, Erika Waters2, Neil D Weinstein3

  • 1University of Florida.

Current Directions in Psychological Science
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PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Unrealistic optimism, a bias where people expect overly favorable future outcomes, is a common cognitive phenomenon. This review explores its definition, triggers, causes, and impacts.

Keywords:
Unrealistic optimismcomparative optimismoptimistic biasrisk judgmentsrisk perception

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Cognitive Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Humans frequently exhibit unrealistic optimism, overestimating positive future personal outcomes.
  • This cognitive bias influences decision-making across various life domains.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To synthesize the extensive research literature on unrealistic optimism.
  • To address key questions regarding its nature, prevalence, underlying mechanisms, and effects.

Main Methods:

  • Comprehensive review and synthesis of existing studies on unrealistic optimism.
  • Categorization of literature based on four core research questions.

Main Results:

  • Unrealistic optimism is characterized by a pervasive tendency towards overly favorable future predictions.
  • The phenomenon occurs across diverse contexts and is influenced by multiple psychological and social factors.
  • Understanding the 'why' involves exploring cognitive biases and motivational factors.

Conclusions:

  • Unrealistic optimism is a significant and widespread cognitive bias with notable consequences.
  • Further research is needed to fully elucidate the complex interplay of factors contributing to and resulting from this bias.