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Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia.

Michael P Strager1, Jacquelyn M Strager2, Jeffrey S Evans3

  • 1Division of Resource Management, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, United States of America.

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Predicting future surface coal mining locations in Appalachia is now possible. This study developed a method to forecast mining extents by 2035, aiding land use planning and impact assessment.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Geospatial analysis
  • Resource management

Background:

  • Predicting future surface coal mining locations in Appalachia is complex due to economic and regulatory uncertainties.
  • Existing coal production forecasts do not specify future mining site changes.
  • Understanding future mining extents is crucial for anticipating environmental impacts and informing decision-makers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a predictive method for future surface coal mining extents in Appalachia through 2035.
  • To integrate economic and regulatory forecasts into spatial predictions.
  • To aid in land use planning and assessment of cumulative environmental impacts.

Main Methods:

  • Integrated a spatial model with coal production demand forecasts.
  • Utilized a ratio linking coal extraction quantities to land area.
  • Predicted land cover change on a 1 km2 grid.

Main Results:

  • Generated a spatial probability distribution for future mining activity across the Appalachian region and Illinois coal areas.
  • Forecasted potential land cover changes associated with predicted mining extents.
  • Provided a tool for decision-makers to anticipate future mining locations.

Conclusions:

  • The developed method offers valuable insights into potential future surface coal mining locations.
  • This prediction capability supports proactive land use planning and environmental impact mitigation.
  • The study addresses a critical need for spatial forecasting in the context of evolving energy landscapes.