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Asynchrony in host and parasite phenology may decrease disease risk in livestock under climate warming: Nematodirus
Parasitology
|June 20, 2015
Summary
Climate warming causes phenological mismatch in host-parasite systems, impacting disease transmission. This study shows earlier parasite emergence reduces outbreaks in sheep by creating asynchrony with lamb availability.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Parasitology
- Climate Change Ecology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Climate warming disrupts phenology, affecting species interactions and ecosystem dynamics.
- The impact of climate-driven phenological shifts on host-parasite systems and disease transmission remains understudied.
- Phenological asynchrony can lead to mismatches between hosts and parasites, influencing disease dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of climate change-induced phenological asynchrony on the transmission of Nematodirus battus in UK sheep flocks.
- To validate region-specific models predicting parasite transmission based on spring temperatures and host availability.
- To understand the consequences of altered host-parasite timing for disease outbreaks and parasite control.
Main Methods:
- Utilized diagnostic laboratory data on Nematodirus battus outbreaks in UK sheep.
- Developed and validated region-specific models linking spring temperatures to parasite egg hatching and larval emergence.
- Assessed the temporal overlap between infective parasite larvae and susceptible lamb populations.
Main Results:
- Model predictions indicated earlier larval emergence in warmer southern regions and years, leading to a decline before peak lamb availability.
- Observed data confirmed model predictions, showing fewer N. battus outbreaks in these warmer regions and years.
- No significant decrease in reported outbreaks was observed in northern areas where larval emergence timing remained aligned with lamb availability.
Conclusions:
- Phenological asynchrony driven by climate warming can alter parasite transmission dynamics and disease burden in a non-linear, predictable manner.
- Understanding these complex host-parasite responses is crucial for adapting parasite control strategies in livestock.
- Climate change impacts on host-parasite systems necessitate adaptive management approaches to mitigate disease risks.
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