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Agent-based model for Johne's disease dynamics in a dairy herd
Jessica Robins1, Sarah Bogen2, Auldon Francis3
1University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, 2431 Joe Johnson Drive, 274 Ellington Plant Science Bldg, Knoxville, TN, 37996-4563, USA. jrobins@utk.edu.
Veterinary Research
|June 21, 2015
Summary
Johne
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Ruminant infectious diseases
- Economic impact analysis
Background:
- Johne's disease, caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis, is a significant threat to ruminant health and dairy industry economics.
- Transmission occurs vertically (in utero, milk, colostrum) and horizontally (fecal-oral), leading to substantial financial losses estimated at over $200 million annually in the US dairy sector.
- Effective control strategies are crucial to mitigate disease spread and economic impact.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Johne's disease control measures utilizing sensitive diagnostic tests.
- To model the dynamics of Johne's disease in a US dairy herd and assess the impact of different control strategies.
- To quantify the economic benefits of implementing ELISA-based diagnostic interventions.
Main Methods:
- Development of an agent-based, discrete-time model simulating Johne's disease transmission within a US dairy herd, incorporating spatial compartments.
- Simulation of disease dynamics with and without transmission routes to study prevalence changes.
- Evaluation of cost-effectiveness of ELISA (Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay) and EVELISA (Enhanced ELISA) based control strategies, including quarterly testing.
Main Results:
- Without intervention, Johne's disease prevalence in the simulated herd increased from 33.1% to 87.7% over 10 years.
- ELISA-based control measures, particularly EVELISA, significantly slowed disease prevalence increase.
- Quarterly ELISA testing further reduced prevalence, and cost analysis indicated potential revenue increases of $44.8/animal/year for ELISA and $51.5/animal/year for EVELISA.
Conclusions:
- ELISA-based diagnostics, especially EVELISA and quarterly testing, are effective in slowing Johne's disease progression in dairy herds.
- Implementing these diagnostic strategies can lead to significant economic benefits for dairy farms.
- Further research and implementation of these control measures are recommended to manage Johne's disease effectively.
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