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Modeling the Dynamics of the U.S. Healthcare Expenditure Using a Hyperbolastic Function.

J T Guemmegne1, J-J Kengwoung-Keumo2, M A Tabatabai3

  • 1Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, MSC 05 3060, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA.

Advances and Applications in Statistics
|June 23, 2015
PubMed
Summary

The Hyperbolastic (H1) model best describes U.S. national healthcare expenditure trends from 1960-2011. This mathematical analysis offers a descriptive and predictive tool for healthcare economics.

Keywords:
DynamicsHyperbolastic growth modelLong-run trendU.S. Healthcare expenditure

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Health Economics
  • Econometrics

Background:

  • U.S. national healthcare expenditures (NHE) have shown significant growth dynamics.
  • Understanding long-term trends in healthcare spending is crucial for policy and research.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the long-run deterministic trend of U.S. national healthcare expenditures from 1960 to 2011.
  • To apply and evaluate Hyperbolastic growth models for modeling healthcare expenditure dynamics.
  • To provide a mathematical analysis of the best-fitting model's deterministic component.

Main Methods:

  • Data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services) were analyzed.
  • Six classical growth models and three Hyperbolastic growth models (H1, H2, H3) were employed to estimate the long-run trend.
  • Mathematical analysis of the absolute growth rate, relative growth rate, and acceleration of NHE was conducted using the H1 model.

Main Results:

  • The Hyperbolastic growth model type 1 (H1) demonstrated the best fit for the U.S. national healthcare expenditure data.
  • The study provides a detailed mathematical examination of the H1 model's deterministic component for NHE.
  • This research represents the first known application of Hyperbolastic models to economic data.

Conclusions:

  • The H1 Hyperbolastic model is a suitable tool for describing and potentially predicting U.S. national healthcare expenditure trends.
  • Researchers and policymakers can utilize these findings for better understanding and managing healthcare spending.
  • The analytical method offers a novel approach to analyzing economic time-series data.