Optimal Cutoff Age for Predicting Mortality Associated with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer
Su-Jin Kim1, Jun Pyo Myong2, Hyunsuk Suh3
1Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Hospital & College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Division of Surgery, Thyroid Center, Seoul National University Cancer Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
Plos One
|June 24, 2015
Summary
Age at diagnosis is a key prognostic factor for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). A study found age 57 to be the optimal cutoff for predicting cancer-specific death in DTC patients, potentially aiding risk stratification.
Area of Science:
- Endocrinology
- Oncology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Patient age at diagnosis is a critical prognostic factor for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC).
- Current staging systems show discrepancies in optimal age cutoffs for predicting DTC patient outcomes.
- Accurate age-based risk stratification is essential for effective DTC management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify the age at diagnosis that best predicts clinical outcomes in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.
- To determine the optimal age cutoff for predicting thyroid cancer-specific death.
- To inform potential revisions of DTC risk stratification systems.
Main Methods:
- A population-based cohort study utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.
- Inclusion of 35,323 differentiated thyroid cancer patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2010.
- Application of the Youden index and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models for analysis.
Main Results:
- The optimal cutoff age for predicting thyroid cancer-specific death was determined to be 57 years.
- Age at diagnosis emerged as the most significant prognostic factor for DTC-specific mortality (HR 10.02).
- Differentiated thyroid cancer-associated mortality was 1.5%, with overall mortality at 7.0% over a median follow-up of 5.4 years.
Conclusions:
- Age at diagnosis is the most crucial prognostic factor for differentiated thyroid cancer patients.
- An age at diagnosis of 57 years may serve as an optimal predictor for thyroid cancer-specific death.
- These findings could guide the refinement of risk stratification systems for DTC treatment.
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