A venous thromboembolism risk assessment model for patients with Cushing's syndrome

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is associated with an incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) about ten times higher than in the normal population. The aim of our study was to develop a model for identifying CS patients at higher risk of VTE. We considered clinical, hormonal, and coagulation data from 176 active CS patients and used a forward stepwise logistic multivariate regression analysis to select the major independent risk factors for thrombosis. The risk of VTE was calculated as a 'CS-VTE score' from the sum of points of present risk factors. VTE developed in 20 patients (4 pulmonary embolism). The group of CS patients with VTE were older (p < 0.001) and had more cardiovascular events (p < 0.05), infections and reduced mobility (both p < 0.001), higher midnight plasma cortisol levels (p < 0.05), and shorter APTT (p < 0.01) than those without. We identified six major independent risk factors for VTE: age ≥69 years and reduced mobility were given two points each, whereas acute severe infections, previous cardiovascular events, midnight plasma cortisol level >3.15 times the normality and shortened APTT were given one point each. A CS-VTE score <2 anticipated no risk of VTE; a CS-VTE score of two mild risk (10 %); a CS-VTE score of three moderate risk (46 %); a CS-VTE score ≥4 high risk (85 %). Considering a score ≥3 as predictive of VTE, 94 % of the patients were correctly classified. A simple score helps stratify the VTE risk in CS patients and identify those who could benefit from thromboprophylaxis.