Mathematical analysis of a multiple strain, multi-locus-allele system for antigenically variable infectious diseases

Alhaji Cherif1

  • 1Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Andrew Wiles Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, United Kingdom.

Insights

Understanding pathogen competition is key for infectious disease control. This study models how distinct pathogen serotypes, like those causing HIV/AIDS and influenza, can self-organize into stable or cyclical coexistence patterns.

Area of Science:

  • Mathematical Biology
  • Epidemiology
  • Theoretical Ecology

Background:

  • Many significant pathogens, including those responsible for HIV/AIDS, influenza, malaria, dengue, and meningitis, exist as distinct serotypes that compete within host populations.
  • Mathematical models, particularly meta-population systems, are crucial for studying the dynamics of infectious diseases involving multiple competing pathogen strains.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analytically investigate a multiple strain model for infectious diseases with co-circulating serotypes.
  • To establish conditions for local asymptotic stability of steady states and the existence of oscillatory behaviors via Hopf bifurcation.
  • To explore how discrete antigenic forms in pathogens lead to self-organization and different coexistence or exclusion dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Revisiting and analyzing a multiple strain mathematical model for infectious disease dynamics.
  • Establishing analytical conditions for local asymptotic stability of equilibrium points.
  • Utilizing Hopf bifurcation analysis to identify conditions for oscillatory dynamics and cyclic behavior.

Main Results:

  • Necessary conditions for local asymptotic stability of steady states were determined.
  • Conditions for the emergence of oscillatory behaviors through Hopf bifurcation were established.
  • Demonstrated that discrete antigenic forms can lead to self-organization, resulting in either strain coexistence or competitive exclusion with discrete strain structures.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides analytical insights into the complex dynamics of infectious diseases with multiple competing pathogen strains.
  • Pathogen antigenic variation can drive self-organization, leading to predictable patterns of coexistence or exclusion.
  • Findings contribute to understanding disease persistence and evolution, informing epidemiological control strategies for diseases like influenza and malaria.

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