A Critical Examination of the "Bad Luck" Explanation of Cancer Risk
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Updated: Apr 8, 2026

Identifying the Effects of BRCA1 Mutations on Homologous Recombination using Cells that Express Endogenous Wild-type BRCA1
Published on: February 17, 2011
Andrii I Rozhok1, Geoffrey M Wahl2, James DeGregori3
1Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado.
Abstract:
Tomasetti and Vogelstein (1) argue that lifetime cancer risk for particular tissues is mostly determined by the total number of stem cell (SC) divisions within the tissue, whereby most cancers arise due to "bad luck"—mutations occurring during DNA replication. We argue that the poorly substantiated estimations of SC division parameters and assumptions that oversimplify somatic evolution prevent such a conclusion from being drawn.
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