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Related Concept Videos

Decision Making01:20

Decision Making

1.3K
Decision-making is a fundamental cognitive process that involves evaluating alternatives and selecting among them. This process can range from simple choices, such as deciding what to wear, to complex decisions, like choosing a major in college or a career path. The complexity of the decision often dictates the approach we use, which can be broadly categorized into two types: automatic and controlled decision-making.
Automatic decision-making is fast, intuitive, and relies on gut feelings...
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Decision Making: P-value Method01:09

Decision Making: P-value Method

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The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim  is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses:  a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
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Decision Making: Traditional Method01:14

Decision Making: Traditional Method

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The process of hypothesis testing based on the traditional method includes calculating the critical value, testing the value of the test statistic using the sample data, and interpreting these values.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
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Uncertainty: Overview00:59

Uncertainty: Overview

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In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
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Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals00:54

Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals

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The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...
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Reason and Intuition01:37

Reason and Intuition

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The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
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The challenges of making decisions using uncertain data.

Matthew D Segall1, Edmund J Champness2

  • 1Optibrium Ltd, 7221 Cambridge Research Park, Beach Drive, Cambridge, CB25 9TL, UK. matt.segall@optibrium.com.

Journal of Computer-Aided Molecular Design
|July 2, 2015
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces rigorous methods for handling uncertainties in experimental compound data. Accounting for data variability ensures better compound selection, preventing wasted resources and missed opportunities in research and development.

Keywords:
Compound optimisationDesirability functionDrug discoveryMulti-parameter optimisationProbabilityUncertainty

Related Experiment Videos

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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
09:07

Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations

Published on: September 16, 2015

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Area of Science:

  • Drug discovery and development
  • cheminformatics
  • quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) studies

Background:

  • Experimental compound data often contain significant uncertainties.
  • These uncertainties arise from imperfect correlations between experimental systems and in vivo properties, as well as inherent variability in experimental conditions.
  • Failure to account for these uncertainties can lead to poor compound selection, resulting in wasted effort and missed opportunities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present rigorous approaches for accounting for uncertainties in experimental compound data.
  • To guide decision-making in the selection and assessment of compounds.
  • To improve the efficiency and success rate of compound development pipelines.

Main Methods:

  • Consideration of uncertainty in individual measurements of a single property.
  • Methods for handling multiple measurements of the same property for a single compound.
  • Exploration of combining uncertainties across multiple properties for multi-parameter optimization.

Main Results:

  • Development of systematic approaches to rigorously incorporate uncertainty into compound selection and assessment.
  • Demonstration of how to manage uncertainty in single and multiple property evaluations.
  • Framework for multi-parameter optimization that accounts for combined uncertainties.

Conclusions:

  • Rigorous accounting for uncertainty in experimental data is essential for informed decision-making in compound selection.
  • These methods help focus on compounds with the highest probability of success.
  • The proposed approaches mitigate the risk of inappropriately rejecting promising compounds, thereby avoiding missed opportunities.