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Double-observer line transect surveys with Markov-modulated Poisson process models for animal availability.

D L Borchers1, R Langrock1

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Area of Science:

  • Wildlife biology
  • Ecological statistics
  • Survey methodology

Background:

  • Line transect surveys are crucial for wildlife population estimation.
  • Undetected animals, even when available, introduce bias.
  • Existing models may not fully capture animal availability dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Develop maximum likelihood methods for line transect surveys with zero-distance undetected animals.
  • Incorporate animal availability using a Markov-modulated Poisson process.
  • Enable simultaneous estimation of detection and availability parameters.

Main Methods:

  • Developed maximum likelihood methods for line transect surveys.
  • Incorporated a Markov-modulated Poisson process for animal availability.
  • Included a mark-recapture component from double-observer surveys.
  • Modeled scenarios with multiple detections and self-estimated availability parameters.

Main Results:

  • Simulations showed improved estimator performance.
  • Simultaneous estimation of parameters is feasible with multiple detections and double-observer data.
  • Multiple detections significantly enhance precision for availability model parameters.
  • Double-observer data improved estimator precision in a minke whale survey.

Conclusions:

  • The developed methods accurately estimate detection probability in line transect surveys.
  • Recording multiple detections of individuals is recommended for improved precision.
  • Double-observer surveys offer substantial benefits for estimating animal availability and detection probability.