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Mitigating active shooter impact: Analysis for policy options based on agent/computer-based modeling.

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Active shooter events result in fewer casualties when response times are reduced. Scenarios with on-site armed personnel, including school resource officers and concealed carry individuals, significantly decrease casualties.

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Area of Science:

  • Public Safety
  • Emergency Response
  • Security Studies

Background:

  • Active shooter violence in confined settings like schools presents significant public safety challenges.
  • The duration of an active shooter event directly correlates with the number of casualties incurred.
  • Timely intervention is critical to mitigating harm during active shooter incidents.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To utilize AnyLogic simulation technology to model and evaluate different response strategies for active shooter scenarios.
  • To determine the most effective methods for reducing casualties in active shooter incidents within educational institutions.
  • To test hypotheses regarding the impact of security measures and armed personnel on event outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Agent-based computer modeling was employed to simulate four distinct response scenarios in a public school setting.
  • Scenarios included: no security, presence of concealed carry individuals, presence of a school resource officer, and a combination of both.
  • Statistical data from these simulations were analyzed to identify outcomes related to casualty reduction and event duration.

Main Results:

  • The simulation confirmed that reducing response time to active shooter events directly leads to fewer casualties.
  • AnyLogic modeling demonstrated the effectiveness of on-site armed responders in mitigating harm.
  • Scenarios incorporating school resource officers and/or concealed carry personnel showed statistically significant reductions in casualties.

Conclusions:

  • Modeling indicates that the presence of on-site armed responders, such as school resource officers and concealed carry personnel, significantly reduces casualties during active shooter events.
  • Reducing the time to event culmination through effective response strategies is paramount in minimizing loss of life.
  • The study underscores the importance of strategic security planning in schools to enhance safety during active shooter incidents.