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Published on: June 12, 2019
Drivers for the renaissance of coal
Jan Christoph Steckel1, Ottmar Edenhofer1, Michael Jakob2
1Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, 10829 Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Department Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany steckel@mcc-berlin.net edenhofer@pik-potsdam.de.
Poor, fast-growing countries are driving a global coal resurgence, increasing carbon emissions. This trend, fueled by low coal prices, threatens climate goals, necessitating viable alternatives for developing nations.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
- Energy Economics
Background:
- Coal was historically dominant but was replaced by oil and gas in the 20th century.
- Coal has re-emerged as a primary source of global carbon emissions in recent years.
- This resurgence is observed globally, not just in a few countries.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the drivers behind the global increase in coal consumption and emissions.
- To investigate the role of domestic coal availability in the global coal market.
- To assess the implications of this coal renaissance for climate change mitigation efforts.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of global coal market trends and consumption data.
- Statistical examination of the relationship between domestic coal resources and coal usage.
- Economic analysis of coal prices relative to oil and gas.
Main Results:
- A global renaissance of coal is occurring, predominantly in poor, fast-growing countries.
- Low coal prices since the late 1990s have accelerated coal consumption.
- Domestic coal availability does not significantly impact coal use or emissions in the integrated global market.
Conclusions:
- The increasing reliance on coal in developing economies poses a significant threat to achieving global climate mitigation targets.
- New coal power plant construction leads to long-term carbon emission lock-in.
- International climate policy must provide viable alternatives to coal for developing countries to avoid exacerbating climate change.
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