[Chronic diseases: recent trends, challenges and prospects for change]

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Chronic Disease Management

Context:

• Analysis of epidemiological surveillance data for chronic diseases.
• Examination of recent trends in mortality and hospitalizations.
• Focus on coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, COPD, and lung cancer.

Purpose:

• To describe sources for chronic disease surveillance.
• To analyze recent trends and underlying causes of changes.
• To deduce future scenarios for chronic disease epidemiology.

Summary:

• Globally, morbidity and mortality for most studied chronic diseases decreased over the past decade, attributed to improved primary prevention and secondary care.
• Notable exceptions include increasing mortality from myocardial infarction, COPD, and lung cancer in women under 55.
• Future trends are uncertain, with potential negative impacts from aging, obesity, diabetes, and female smoking, contrasted by potential mitigating factors like e-cigarettes and bariatric surgery.

Impact:

• Highlights the complex interplay of factors influencing chronic disease trends.
• Underscores the need for continued surveillance and adaptive public health strategies.
• Informs future health policy and interventions to address evolving chronic disease burdens.