Hybrid-Electric Passenger Car Carbon Dioxide and Fuel Consumption Benefits Based on Real-World Driving

Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) have lower fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than conventional vehicles (CVs), on average, based on laboratory tests, but there is a paucity of real-world, on-road HEV emissions and performance data needed to assess energy use and emissions associated with real-world driving, including the effects of road grade. This need is especially great as the electrification of the passenger vehicle fleet (from HEVs to PHEVs to BEVs) increases in response to climate and energy concerns. We compared tailpipe CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of an HEV passenger car to a CV of the same make and model during real-world, on-the-road network driving to quantify the in-use benefit of one popular full HEV technology. Using vehicle specific power (VSP) assignments that account for measured road grade, the mean CV/HEV ratios of CO2 tailpipe emissions or fuel consumption defined the corresponding HEV "benefit" factor for each VSP class (1 kW/ton resolution). Averaging over all VSP classes for driving in all seasons, including temperatures from -13 to +35 °C in relatively steep (-13.2 to +11.5% grade), hilly terrain, mean (±SD) CO2 emission benefit factors were 4.5 ± 3.6, 2.5 ± 1.7, and 1.4 ± 0.5 for city, exurban/suburban arterial and highway driving, respectively. Benefit factor magnitude corresponded to the frequency of electric-drive-only (EDO) operation, which was modeled as a logarithmic function of VSP. A combined model explained 95% of the variance in HEV benefit for city, 75% for arterial and 57% for highway driving. Benefit factors consistently exceeded 2 for VSP classes with greater than 50% EDO (i.e., only city and arterial driving). The reported HEV benefits account for real-world road grade that is often neglected in regulatory emissions and fuel economy tests. Fuel use HEV benefit factors were 1.3 and 2 for the regulatory highway (HWFET) and city (FTP) cycles, respectively, 18% and 31% higher than the EPA adjusted fuel economy values. This study establishes the significant need for high-resolution vehicle activity and road grade data in transportation data sets to accurately forecast future petroleum and GHG emissions savings from hybridization of the passenger vehicle fleet.