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Expectations for Replications: Are Yours Realistic?

David J Stanley1, Jeffrey R Spence2

  • 1University of Guelph dstanley@uoguelph.ca.

Perspectives on Psychological Science : a Journal of the Association for Psychological Science
|July 15, 2015
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Replication failures in psychological research are common due to measurement error, not just fraud. Computer simulations show that random measurement error alone causes substantial result variation, challenging current replication expectations.

Keywords:
individual differencesmeta-analysismethodologyreliabilityreplicationscientific

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Research Methodology
  • Statistical Analysis

Background:

  • The field of psychology faces a "crisis of confidence" due to frequent failures in replicating published research findings.
  • Existing explanations for replication failures often focus on questionable research practices and data fraud.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of measurement error on research replication.
  • To challenge the "intuitive expectations" for replication in psychological research.
  • To propose a shift towards a meta-analytic mindset for interpreting replication attempts.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized computer simulations to generate thousands of ideal replications.
  • Focused on scenarios with identical participants, isolating random measurement error as the sole variable.
  • Assessed the relative contributions of sampling error and measurement error to replication variability.

Main Results:

  • Simulations demonstrated that measurement error alone can lead to substantial differences in study results across replications.
  • Highlighted the significant impact of even modest measurement error on observed associations.
  • Illustrated the challenges researchers face in interpreting and replicating published findings.

Conclusions:

  • Current expectations for replication in psychology are unreasonable due to the inherent influence of measurement error.
  • Failed replication attempts should be interpreted with caution, considering the potential role of measurement error.
  • Researchers should adopt a meta-analytic perspective to better understand and interpret replication variability.