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Bayesian Melding Approach to Estimate the Reproduction Number for Tuberculosis Transmission in Indian States and
Pankaj Narula1, Sarita Azad2, Pietro Lio3
1Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi, India.
Abstract:
Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most common infectious diseases and a leading cause of death in the world. Despite the full implementation of Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme, the disease continues to be a leading cause of morality and economic burden in India. The basic reproduction is a fundamental key parameter that quantifies the spread of a disease. In this article, we present a Bayesian melding approach to estimate the basic reproduction number using a deterministic model of TB. We present a point estimate of the basic reproduction number of 35 states and union territories of India during 2006 to 2011. The basic reproduction number of TB for India is computed to be 0.92, which indicates the slow elimination of TB in India during 2006 to 2011.
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