Presentations to Alberta emergency departments for asthma: a time series analysis

Asthma is a common chronic respiratory condition, and exacerbations may cause individuals to seek care in emergency departments (EDs). This study examines the monthly patterns of asthma presentations to EDs in Alberta, Canada.

All presentations to the ED for asthma from April 1999 to March 2011 were extracted from provincial administrative health databases. Data included age, sex, and health zone of residence. Crude rates per 100,000 population were calculated. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series models were developed.

There were a total of 362,430 ED presentations for asthma, and the monthly rate of presentation declined from 115.5 to 41.6 per 100,000 during the study period. Males made 50.1% of ED presentations, and adults made 52.8%. The absolute number of ED presentations for asthma declined in each of the five administrative health zones in the province, with smaller percentage decreases seen in the most urbanized zones (32.1%) than the other zones (46.9%). One SARIMA model closely predicted overall presentation rates as well as the rates of ED presentations for age and zone subgroups. These models showed strong seasonal components, with the strongest estimates occurring for the pediatric subgroup and the southernmost provincial zone.

Rates of ED presentations for asthma have been declining in this province during the past decade. The reasons for this decline warrant further exploration. The SARIMA models quantified the temporal patterns and may be helpful for planning research and health care service needs.