Liver stiffness plus platelet count can be used to exclude high-risk oesophageal varices

Nik S Ding1, Tin Nguyen1, David M Iser1

  • 1Department of Gastroenterology, St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne and the University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

Insights

A simple clinical rule using liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and platelet count (Pl) can safely exclude high-risk gastro-oesophageal varices (GOV) in cirrhosis patients. This avoids unnecessary endoscopic screening for many patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Area of Science:

  • Hepatology
  • Gastroenterology
  • Medical Diagnostics

Background:

  • Endoscopic screening for high-risk gastro-oesophageal varices (GOV) is recommended for compensated cirrhotic patients.
  • Transient elastography identifies more cirrhosis patients without portal hypertension, necessitating refined screening strategies.
  • Current methods may lead to unnecessary endoscopies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a simple clinical rule to exclude high-risk GOV in Child-Pugh A cirrhosis patients.
  • To utilize liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and platelet count (Pl) for this purpose.
  • To reduce the need for invasive endoscopic screening.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 71 Child-Pugh A cirrhosis patients diagnosed by transient elastography (LSM >13.6 kPa).
  • Development and validation of a predictive model using LSM ± platelet count to exclude high-risk GOV.
  • Validation in a second cohort of 200 patients from independent centers.

Main Results:

  • High-risk GOV were present in 15% (training) and 8% (validation) cohorts.
  • A combined model of LSM and Pl count was more accurate in excluding high-risk GOV than either alone.
  • LSM ≤25 kPa and Pl ≥100 demonstrated 100% negative predictive value in both cohorts, identifying 39% of patients.

Conclusions:

  • The combination of LSM ≤25 kPa and Pl ≥100 effectively excludes high-risk GOV in Child-Pugh A cirrhosis.
  • This clinical rule can be implemented to guide screening decisions.
  • It offers a non-invasive approach to risk stratification, potentially reducing endoscopic procedures.
Abstract

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