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A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes
David G Milledge1, Dino Bellugi2, Jim A McKean3
1Department of Geography, Durham University Durham, UK.
Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface
|July 28, 2015
Summary
A new model predicts shallow landslide size on natural slopes, accounting for lateral resistance and root reinforcement. This model is simple enough for watershed-wide application and explains observed landslide size-frequency distributions.
Area of Science:
- Geosciences
- Earth Surface Processes
- Geotechnical Engineering
Background:
- Landslide size is crucial for hazard assessment and geomorphic impact.
- Current models for landslide size prediction are either inaccurate or computationally demanding for landscape-scale applications.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a computationally efficient model for predicting shallow landslide size on natural slopes.
- To incorporate lateral resistance and root reinforcement into a predictive framework for landslide initiation.
Main Methods:
- Derived a new model for shallow landslide size prediction on natural slopes.
- Incorporated lateral resistance using earth pressure theory and root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth.
- Validated the model against an observed landslide with well-constrained field data and conducted numerical experiments.
Main Results:
- The model successfully predicts failure for an observed landslide scar geometry, indicating stability for conformal shapes larger or smaller than the observed scar.
- Numerical experiments reveal that boundary friction significantly enhances lateral reinforcement compared to root cohesion alone.
- A critical depth exists for both cohesive and cohesionless soils, leading to a minimum failure size consistent with observed distributions.
- Differential boundary resistance dictates a critical landslide shape (longer than wide), aligning with observed aspect ratios.
- Minimum landslide size scales approximately with the square of the failure surface depth, matching observed depth-area data.
Conclusions:
- The developed model offers a practical and accurate method for predicting shallow landslide size across entire watersheds.
- The findings highlight the importance of lateral resistance, including boundary friction and root reinforcement, in controlling landslide size and shape.
- The model's ability to reproduce observed size-frequency and depth-area distributions validates its utility in geomorphic and hazard studies.
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