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Published on: September 22, 2023
Integration of Different Risk Assessment Tools to Improve Stratification of Patients with Coronary Artery Disease
S Paredes1, T Rocha2, P de Carvalho3
1Computer Science and Systems Engineering Department, Polytechnic Institute of Coimbra (IPC/ISEC), Rua Pedro Nunes, 3030-199, Coimbra, Portugal. sparedes@isec.pt.
Insights
This study introduces novel cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment methods combining multiple tools and personalizing predictions. These advanced techniques improve accuracy and clinical utility for predicting cardiac events.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Biomedical Informatics
- Machine Learning
Background:
- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) poses significant healthcare burdens, particularly in aging European populations.
- Clinical guidelines advocate for risk assessment tools to predict CVD events, but existing methods have limitations.
- Accurate prediction of cardiovascular events like hospitalization or death is crucial for patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate improved methodologies for cardiovascular disease risk assessment.
- To address drawbacks of current risk prediction tools through innovative computational approaches.
- To enhance the accuracy, interpretability, and flexibility of CVD risk prediction models.
Main Methods:
- A novel approach combining multiple risk assessment tools using naïve Bayes classifiers and genetic optimization.
- Personalized risk assessment achieved through subtractive clustering in a reduced-dimensional space.
- Validation conducted on two Acute Coronary Syndrome with Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (ACS-NSTEMI) patient datasets.
Main Results:
- The proposed methodologies demonstrated improved performance over existing CVD risk assessment tools.
- Achieved maximum sensitivity of 79.8%, specificity of 83.8%, and geometric mean of 80.9%.
- Ensured clinical interpretability, adaptability for new risk factors, and better handling of missing data.
Conclusions:
- The developed methods offer a more robust and adaptable approach to cardiovascular disease risk prediction.
- These advancements provide a valuable alternative to standard, single CVD risk assessment tools in clinical practice.
- The enhanced capabilities address key limitations, paving the way for more personalized and effective patient care.
Abstract:
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes unaffordable social and health costs that tend to increase as the European population ages. In this context, clinical guidelines recommend the use of risk scores to predict the risk of a cardiovascular disease event. Some useful tools have been developed to predict the risk of occurrence of a cardiovascular disease event (e.g. hospitalization or death). However, these tools present some drawbacks. These problems are addressed through two methodologies: (i) combination of risk assessment tools: fusion of naïve Bayes classifiers complemented with a genetic optimization algorithm and (ii) personalization of risk assessment: subtractive clustering applied to a reduced-dimensional space to create groups of patients. Validation was performed based on two ACS-NSTEMI patient data sets. This work improved the performance in relation to current risk assessment tools, achieving maximum values of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean of, respectively, 79.8, 83.8, and 80.9 %. Additionally, it assured clinical interpretability, ability to incorporate of new risk factors, higher capability to deal with missing risk factors and avoiding the selection of a standard CVD risk assessment tool to be applied in the clinical practice.
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