Monitoring studies should consider temporal variability to reveal relations between cyanobacterial abundance and...

One of the main goals of monitoring cyanobacteria blooms in aquatic environments is to reveal the relationship between cyanobacterial abundance and environmental variables. Studies typically correlate data that were simultaneously sampled. However, samplings occur sparsely over time and may not reveal the short-term responses of cyanobacterial abundance to environmental changes. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that stronger cyanobacteria x environment relationships in monitoring are found when the temporal variability of sampling points is incorporated in the statistical analyses. To this end, we investigated relationships between cyanobacteria and seven environmental variables that were sampled twice yearly for three years across 11 reservoirs, and data from an intensive monitoring in one of these reservoirs. Poor correlations were obtained when correlating data simultaneously sampled. In fact, the 'highly recurrent' role of phosphorus in cyanobacteria blooms is not properly observed in all sampling periods. On the other hand, the strongest correlation values for the total phosphorus x cyanobacteria relationship were observed when we used the variation of sampling points. We have also shown that environment variables better explain cyanobacteria when a time lag is considered. We conclude that, in cyanobacteria monitoring, the best approach to reveal determinants of cyanobacteria blooms is to consider environmental variability.