Risk Factors for Long-Term Coronary Artery Calcium Progression in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Amanda J Gassett1, Lianne Sheppard1, Robyn L McClelland1

  • 1University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA (A.J.G., L.S., R.L.M.C., C.O., R.K., J.D.K.).

Insights

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression over 10 years shows strong links to cardiovascular disease risk factors like age, male sex, hypertension, and diabetes. This longitudinal analysis helps evaluate new risk factors for heart events.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Radiology
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Coronary artery calcium (CAC) quantifies atherosclerosis burden via cardiac CT.
  • Higher CAC levels correlate with increased coronary events.
  • Previous studies on CAC progression had limitations in follow-up duration or patient selection.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression.
  • To analyze CAC changes over a 10-year period in a multiethnic cohort.
  • To utilize an innovative analytical approach for assessing CAC progression.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective multiethnic cohort study involving 6810 adults.
  • Coronary artery calcium (CAC) measured 1-4 times over 10 years (mean 2.5 scans).
  • Mixed-effects models used to analyze associations between risk factors and CAC progression, adjusting for time-varying factors and baseline CAC.

Main Results:

  • Mean CAC progression was 23.9 Agatston units/year.
  • Significant associations found between CAC progression and age, male sex, hypertension, and diabetes.
  • Age: 14.2 units/year per 10 years; Male sex: 17.8 units/year; Hypertension: 13.8 units/year; Diabetes: 31.3 units/year.

Conclusions:

  • Longitudinal CAC progression over 10 years strongly correlates with established cardiovascular disease risk factors.
  • This analytical framework enables the evaluation of novel cardiovascular risk factors using longitudinal CAC data.
Abstract

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