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Published on: June 2, 2022
Risk Factors for Long-Term Coronary Artery Calcium Progression in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis
Amanda J Gassett1, Lianne Sheppard1, Robyn L McClelland1
1University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA (A.J.G., L.S., R.L.M.C., C.O., R.K., J.D.K.).
Insights
Coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression over 10 years shows strong links to cardiovascular disease risk factors like age, male sex, hypertension, and diabetes. This longitudinal analysis helps evaluate new risk factors for heart events.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Radiology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Coronary artery calcium (CAC) quantifies atherosclerosis burden via cardiac CT.
- Higher CAC levels correlate with increased coronary events.
- Previous studies on CAC progression had limitations in follow-up duration or patient selection.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression.
- To analyze CAC changes over a 10-year period in a multiethnic cohort.
- To utilize an innovative analytical approach for assessing CAC progression.
Main Methods:
- Prospective multiethnic cohort study involving 6810 adults.
- Coronary artery calcium (CAC) measured 1-4 times over 10 years (mean 2.5 scans).
- Mixed-effects models used to analyze associations between risk factors and CAC progression, adjusting for time-varying factors and baseline CAC.
Main Results:
- Mean CAC progression was 23.9 Agatston units/year.
- Significant associations found between CAC progression and age, male sex, hypertension, and diabetes.
- Age: 14.2 units/year per 10 years; Male sex: 17.8 units/year; Hypertension: 13.8 units/year; Diabetes: 31.3 units/year.
Conclusions:
- Longitudinal CAC progression over 10 years strongly correlates with established cardiovascular disease risk factors.
- This analytical framework enables the evaluation of novel cardiovascular risk factors using longitudinal CAC data.
Background:
Coronary artery calcium (CAC) detected by noncontrast cardiac computed tomography scanning is a measure of coronary atherosclerosis burden. Increasing CAC levels have been strongly associated with increased coronary events. Prior studies of cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression have been limited by short follow-up or restricted to patients with advanced disease.
Methods And Results:
We examined cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression in a prospective multiethnic cohort study. CAC was measured 1 to 4 times (mean 2.5 scans) over 10 years in 6810 adults without preexisting cardiovascular disease. Mean CAC progression was 23.9 Agatston units/year. An innovative application of mixed-effects models investigated associations between cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression. This approach adjusted for time-varying factors, was flexible with respect to follow-up time and number of observations per participant, and allowed simultaneous control of factors associated with both baseline CAC and CAC progression. Models included age, sex, study site, scanner type, and race/ethnicity. Associations were observed between CAC progression and age (14.2 Agatston units/year per 10 years [95% CI 13.0 to 15.5]), male sex (17.8 Agatston units/year [95% CI 15.3 to 20.3]), hypertension (13.8 Agatston units/year [95% CI 11.2 to 16.5]), diabetes (31.3 Agatston units/year [95% CI 27.4 to 35.3]), and other factors.
Conclusions:
CAC progression analyzed over 10 years of follow-up, with a novel analytical approach, demonstrated strong relationships with risk factors for incident cardiovascular events. Longitudinal CAC progression analyzed in this framework can be used to evaluate novel cardiovascular risk factors.
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